Refined oil has become the dominant driver of trade between the United Kingdom and Nigeria, with exports from the UK to Nigeria reaching £1.5 billion in the year ending June 2025, accounting for nearly 69% of all UK goods shipments to the country. This marks a 62.8% increase compared with the previous year, according to the latest UK–Nigeria Trade and Investment Factsheet from the UK Department for Business and Trade.

Overall, UK exports to Nigeria rose 12.3% to £5.6 billion, while imports from Nigeria increased by 8.2% to £2.3 billion, pushing total bilateral trade in goods and services to £8 billion—a growth of 11.1% from the previous year. The UK recorded a trade surplus of £3.3 billion with Nigeria, up from £2.8 billion the year before.

Refined oil topped UK exports, followed by toilet and cleansing products (£55.8 million), industrial machinery (£42.7 million), textile fabrics (£40.1 million), and mechanical power generators (£35.1 million), all of which recorded year-on-year growth. While goods exports surged by 43.5%, services exports slightly declined by 1.1%, totaling £3.5 billion in the period.

On the Nigerian side, crude oil remained the leading export to the UK at £1.3 billion, making up 73.1% of goods shipped, followed by refined oil at £223.8 million and gas exports at £167.8 million. Gas exports showed the fastest growth, jumping 75% year-on-year, while refined oil exports rose by 62.6% and crude oil shipments increased by 7.9%.

The rise in Nigeria’s refined oil exports is linked to the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, capable of processing 650,000 barrels per day, which is helping the country pivot from crude oil sales to exporting refined products.

Trade analysts note that Nigeria’s new 15% levy on petrol and diesel imports, approved by President Bola Tinubu, is expected to curb foreign fuel imports, support domestic refining, and redirect demand toward local producers like Dangote. While some experts warn that the tariff could temporarily increase fuel prices, others believe it will strengthen the nation’s refining sector in the long term.

Despite growing trade volumes, investment flows have weakened. UK direct investment in Nigeria dropped by 24.7% to £385 million at the end of 2023, while Nigerian investments in the UK fell 41.2% to £489 million.

The UK remains Nigeria’s 27th largest export market and 36th largest trading partner, with its market share in Nigerian goods imports rising to 5.2% in 2024 from 4.5% a year earlier.

The data highlights an evolving trade relationship, driven largely by energy products, as Nigeria increasingly moves toward refined oil exports while the UK maintains its position as a key supplier of both goods and services.