The counting process for Ireland’s General Election will commence on Saturday morning, with an exit poll revealing a tight contest among the country’s three main political parties.

According to the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll, commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, Sinn Féin leads with 21.1% of first-preference votes, narrowly ahead of the current coalition partners, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which garnered 21% and 19.5%, respectively.

The two largest parties in the outgoing coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, combine for a total of 40.5% of the vote.

While these figures provide an early snapshot of party support, final results will depend on the second-preference votes, as Ireland uses a proportional representation system with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), meaning the vote counting could take days.

The Ipsos B&A exit poll also revealed the distribution of voters’ second preferences, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael each securing 20%, while Sinn Féin trailed with 17%.

The polling indicates that forming a majority government will likely require more than three parties, given the fragmented vote.

The breakdown of other parties in the poll shows: Social Democrats at 5.8%, Labour at 5%, Greens at 4%, Aontú at 3.6%, People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1%, and Independent Ireland at 2.2%.

Independents and other candidates together account for 14.6% of the vote. The margin of error for the poll is 1.4%.Sinn Féin’s director of elections, Matt Carthy, expressed his party’s optimism, calling the results a “phenomenal” performance that represents a significant turnaround from the disappointing results in the 2019 local and European elections. “Previous exit polls understated Sinn Féin’s performance by more than 2%,” Carthy noted, underscoring the party’s stronger position in this election.

However, Fianna Fáil’s deputy leader, Jack Chambers, cautioned that the three-way race is still within the margin of error, emphasizing that “we’re clearly in the mix with the other two parties.” Fine Gael representative Damien English similarly described the results as a “very solid performance,” predicting that Fine Gael will return 37-38 seats despite a significant number of incumbents not standing for re-election.

The complicated vote tallying process and the fragmented vote mean that all eyes will now be on the potential coalition negotiations.

With smaller parties and independents likely playing a significant role, forming a stable government could prove challenging.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have consistently ruled out forming a coalition with Sinn Féin, citing significant policy differences. “Nothing has changed in regard to Fianna Fáil’s position of ruling out a coalition with Sinn Féin,” said Jack Chambers.

Damien English of Fine Gael echoed this, adding that it was too early to discuss government formation but noting that Sinn Féin’s figures were “well down” from their previous highs.

The political landscape has shifted significantly since the 2020 election, when Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, despite their long history of rivalry stemming from the Irish Civil War, formed a coalition government for the first time.

This arrangement included the Greens as a junior partner, marking a historic break from their previously entrenched positions.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has fielded a larger slate of candidates this time around in an effort to avoid the mistakes of the past, as she pushed for a government “of change” without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.With 174 seats in the Dáil to be filled, and 173 seats up for grabs after the Ceann Comhairle’s automatic return, the coming days will be crucial in determining the next government.

The election has been dominated by debates over Ireland’s housing crisis, the country’s response to rising immigration, and economic management amid the ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, whose party is part of the current coalition, has indicated that his government partners will likely seek an “easier life” in any future coalition talks.

This could lead to the inclusion of right-wing independents or small populist parties to secure a majority.