The Nigerian government’s new 15 per cent import duty on petrol has sparked concerns from economists and labour unions, who warn that the policy could push fuel prices higher and deepen the country’s inflation crisis. Critics have labeled the move “anti-people,” arguing it will hit low-income households the hardest.

The directive, issued in October to the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, mandates the immediate application of the new tariff. Analysts estimate that the levy could raise the landing cost of petrol by nearly N100 per litre, potentially pushing Lagos pump prices to around N965 per litre.

Marcel Okeke, former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank, cautioned that the policy could trigger cost-push inflation, where rising fuel costs ripple across the economy, affecting goods and services. “The government claims the duty aims to support domestic refiners, but most public refineries remain non-operational, leaving Dangote Refinery as the only major facility,” he said. Okeke suggested that instead of penalising importers, the government should create incentives for local refining through tax relief and improved infrastructure.

Chris Onyeka, Assistant Secretary-General of the Nigeria Labour Congress, described the policy as favouring large private players, particularly Dangote Refinery, while ordinary Nigerians bear the brunt of rising costs. He noted that imported petrol, often refined abroad, can still be cheaper than locally produced fuel, questioning the rationale behind the duty.

Onyeka warned that the added cost will inevitably be transferred to consumers, worsening daily living expenses in a country already struggling with high food prices, transport costs, and unstable electricity supply. He also raised concerns about market monopolisation, drawing parallels with Dangote’s dominance in sugar and salt markets.

Nigeria currently operates a single large-scale refinery at Dangote, while state-owned plants remain under rehabilitation and smaller modular refineries contribute minimally to supply. Labour leaders argue that the import duty, rather than encouraging domestic refining, may consolidate the market advantage of already dominant players.

The government, however, maintains that the duty is part of broader revenue-generation efforts. Critics continue to stress that protecting consumers and supporting local production must go hand in hand to avoid worsening economic hardship.