Nigeria’s domestic fuel market recorded further gains in January 2026 as petrol supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery climbed to an average of 40.1 million litres per day.
Fresh data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicate that the refinery increased output by roughly 8 million litres daily compared with December 2025, when average supply stood at about 32 million litres per day. The rise points to steady improvements in local refining capacity as the facility continues its phased operational ramp-up.
The regulator explained that Nigeria’s benchmark requirement for domestic petrol supply is estimated at 75 million litres per day. With output now above 40 million litres daily, the Dangote refinery is covering more than half of that benchmark, significantly reducing the volume needed from imports.
According to the report, average PMS consumption in January 2026 was 60.2 million litres per day. Imports handled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other marketers averaged 24.8 million litres per day during the period. In total, petrol supply into the domestic market averaged 64.9 million litres daily, exceeding estimated consumption for the month.
NMDPRA noted that consumption figures are calculated using truck-out volumes into the domestic market, which serve as the primary indicator for assessing effective fuel distribution nationwide.
The data underscore the refinery’s expanding role in stabilising Nigeria’s fuel supply. The facility, located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, is designed as a 650,000 barrels-per-day single-train refinery, making it the largest of its kind in the world.
Operations at the refinery have been progressively optimised, with management focusing on the crude distillation unit and the motor spirit production block to ensure steady-state performance. A 72-hour performance test run is currently being carried out in collaboration with technology licensor UOP to validate operational efficiency and confirm compliance with international standards.
Industry analysts believe the refinery’s improving output could have broader economic implications, particularly in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
Prominent investor Femi Otedola recently projected that the naira could strengthen to below ₦1,000 per dollar before the end of the year, citing lower import requirements and increased local refining capacity.
With petrol consumption previously reported at 63.7 million litres per day in December 2025, the latest figures suggest Nigeria is edging closer to meeting its fuel needs through domestic production, marking a significant shift in the country’s downstream petroleum landscape
