The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate as the apex bank enters a renewed phase of monetary easing to boost domestic productivity.
Analysts’ consensus yesterday indicated that the apex bank would at the end of its two-day meeting starting today reduce the benchmark interest rate by at least 50 basis points to 26.50 points.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the highest policy-making organ of the apex bank. The interest rates will be core of discussions at the meeting.
The CBN Governor-led MPC traditionally provides monetary policies and benchmarks, which determine the direction of the financial services sector, and the economy to a large extent.
At its last meeting in November 2025, the MPC retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent, halting the trend that started with a cut from 27.50 per cent in September 2025.
Economic intelligence reports and think tanks, which had previously correctly tracked the apex bank’s position, yesterday were unanimous that the MPC could restart its policy easing stance, given the improvements in macroeconomic environment.
Analysts said continuing decline in inflation, rising external reserves, stable domestic currency, bullish corporate outlook and stronger fiscal position have made a perfect scenario for the apex bank to begin gradual reduction of interest rate.
They said the latest Executive Order signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which mandated direct remittance of oil and gas revenues to the Federation Accounts, has further strengthened the government’s fiscal position, lessening certain vulnerabilities that had been the concern of the apex bank.
Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa said the continuing disinflation has increased the possibility of a rate cut by the MPC.
Inflation rate had dropped to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 as against 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Notably, food inflation declined by 195 basis points from 10.84 per cent to 8.90 per cent while core inflation-all items less farm produce and energy, reduced by 91 basis points from 18.63 per cent to 17.72 per cent.
