Nearly 17 million Nigerians could require urgent food assistance by January 2027 despite an expected decline from current levels, according to new projections by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
In its July 2026 Food Assistance Outlook Brief, the United States government-funded early warning agency estimated that between 16 million and 16.99 million people in Nigeria will face acute food insecurity by early next year. While this is lower than the projected 20 million to 20.99 million people requiring assistance in July 2026, the figure remains higher than the level recorded in January 2026 and exceeds the country’s five-year average.
The report identified Nigeria as one of the countries carrying the world’s largest food insecurity burden. It ranked the country fourth globally for the number of people expected to need emergency food support by January 2027, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
FEWS NET also listed Nigeria among four countries expected to account for more than 10 percent of the estimated 145 million to 155 million people who will require food assistance across the 30 countries it monitors.
According to the report, insecurity remains the primary driver of the crisis, particularly in northern Nigeria, where conflict continues to disrupt farming activities, limit access to livelihoods and reduce household incomes. The agency noted that although the main harvest expected by December could improve food availability, it is unlikely to significantly reduce food prices because production and supply challenges persist.
The outlook warned that communities in parts of the North-East affected by prolonged violence and movement restrictions will remain in the “Emergency” phase of food insecurity. Under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification system, this is the second-highest level before famine and indicates severe food shortages, high rates of malnutrition and an increased risk of deaths unless urgent assistance is provided.
FEWS NET attributed Nigeria’s food insecurity to a combination of armed conflict, economic pressures and adverse weather conditions. These factors have also contributed to worsening food crises in several other countries, including Sudan and Pakistan.
Globally, the report projects that up to 155 million people across monitored countries will require humanitarian food assistance by January 2027. South Sudan is expected to have the highest proportion of its population facing food insecurity, followed by Sudan, Yemen and Somalia.
The agency also warned that Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and Chad remain at risk of slipping into famine if conditions continue to deteriorate.
FEWS NET said its estimates include people already experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse, as well as those who would fall into those conditions without humanitarian support. For Nigeria, the organisation indicated that its projections are based on direct in-country assessments rather than remote monitoring.
