The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says the Dangote Refinery supplied an average of 18.03 million litres of petrol per day between October 2024 and October 2025.
The figure is significantly below the refinery’s earlier target of 35 million litres daily, a projection that previously influenced government decisions on fuel import policies.
Despite the refinery’s contribution, Nigeria’s petrol demand continues to rise. In October 2025 alone, daily consumption reached 56.74 million litres, the highest level recorded during the review period.
Available data shows that only 17.08 million litres of the country’s daily consumption for that month came from domestic refineries. The remaining 27.6 million litres were supplied through imports, highlighting the country’s continued dependence on foreign fuel to meet national demand.
The NNPC-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna produced no petrol during the period under review, as they were either under rehabilitation or maintenance. This has left Dangote Refinery as the main source of local petrol supply.
Analysts say the gap between Dangote’s output and the country’s growing consumption means Nigeria will still rely heavily on imports. They also note that earlier policy plans, including proposed fuel import duties, may need further revision until domestic refining capacity expands.
